Africa: reports and publications

These reports and publications are related to energy modeling for policy support (EMoPS). This page currently includes the Middle East region too.

Planning and strategy

International Energy Agency (8 November 2019). Africa energy outlook. Paris, France: IEA Publications. No cost but registration required.

IRENA (April 2021). Planning and prospects for renewable power: Eastern and Southern Africa. Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). ISBN 978‑92‑9260‑331‑1. Open access. :open_access:

Pappis, Ioannis, Mark Howells, Vignesh Sridharan, Will Usher, Abhishek Shivakumar, Gardumi Francesco, and Eunice Ramos (2019). Energy projections for African countries. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. ISBN 978-92-76-12391-0. doi:10.2760/678700. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. Download PDF from DOI site. :open_access:

Modeling

Dioha, MO (December 2017). “Energy system models for sub-Saharan African countries: a systematic review”. Journal of Sustainable Energy. 8 (4): 159–168. ISSN 2067-5534.

Falchetta, Giacomo, David EHJ Gernaat, Julian Hunt, and Sebastian Sterl (10 September 2019). “Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: a nexus framework and evidence-based review”. Journal of Cleaner Production. 231: 1399–1417. ISSN 0959-6526. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.263. :closed_access:

Falchetta, Giacomo, Nicolò Stevanato, Magda Moner-Girona, Davide Mazzoni, Emanuela Colombo, and Manfred Hafner (July 2021). “The M-LED platform: advancing electricity demand assessment for communities living in energy poverty”. Environmental Research Letters. 16 (7): 074038. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac0cab. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Kirli, Desen, Johannes Hampp, Koen van Greevenboek, Rebecca Grant, Matin Mahmood, Maximilian Parzen, and Aristides Kiprakis (20 October 2021). “PyPSA meets Africa: developing an open source electricity network model of the African continent”. arXiv:2110.10628 [cs, eess]. Version 1. :open_access:

Musonye, Xavier S, Brynhildur Davíðsdóttir, Ragnar Kristjánsson, Eyjólfur I Ásgeirsson, and Hlynur Stefánsson (August 2020). “Integrated energy systems modeling studies for sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 128: 109915. ISSN 1364-0321. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2020.109915. :closed_access:

Pavičević, Matija, Matteo De Felice, Sebastian Busch, Ignacio Hidalgo González, and Sylvain Quoilin (1 August 2021). “Water-energy nexus in African power pools – the Dispa-SET Africa model”. Energy. 228: 120623. ISSN 0360-5442. :closed_access: doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.120623.

Pappis, Ioannis (19 January 2022). Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal access (SDG7) in each African nation — Preprint. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1225396/v1. Available at Research Square. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Pappis, Ioannis, Vignesh Sridharan, Mark Howells, Hrvoje Medarac, Ioannis Kougias, Rocío González Sánchez, Abhishek Shivakumar, and Will Usher (March 2022). “The effects of climate change mitigation strategies on the energy system of Africa and its associated water footprint”. Environmental Research Letters. 17 (4): 044048. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ede. :open_access:

Stevanato, Nicolò, Matteo V Rocco, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelletti, and Emanuela Colombo (2 December 2021). “Advancing the representation of reservoir hydropower in energy systems modelling: the case of Zambesi river basin”. PLOS ONE. 16 (12): –0259876. ISSN 1932-6203. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0259876. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Taliotis, Constantinos, Abhishek Shivakumar, Eunice Ramos, Mark Howells, Dimitris Mentis, Vignesh Sridharan, Oliver Broad, and Linus Mofor (1 April 2016). “An indicative analysis of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector: using TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa)”. Energy for Sustainable Development. 31: 50–66. ISSN 0973-0826. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2015.12.001. :closed_access:

Trace, Simon (11 May 2020). Strategic energy planning in SSA is essential but is often constrained. ESI-Africa.com. SSA is sub‑Saharan Africa. News site.

African continent

Carlino, Angelo, Matthias Wildemeersch, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti (28 March 2022). Hydropower capacity expansion in the African continent under different socio-economic and climate policy scenarios — EGU22-12703. doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12703. Abstract only (yet to be presented). Conference on 23–27 May 2022. :open_access:

Oyewo, Ayobami S, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Arman Aghahosseini, Theophilus NO Mensah, and Christian Breyer (6 September 2022). “Contextualizing the scope, scale, and speed of energy pathways toward sustainable development in Africa”. iScience. 0 (0): 0. ISSN 2589‑0042. doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.104965. Publication details to be advised. :open_access:

Pappis, Ioannis (2022). Trade-offs and conflicting objectives of decision making investments in low-carbon technology portfolios for sustainable development: national and continental insights offered by applying energy system models — PhD thesis. Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal Institute of Technology. Doctoral Thesis in Energy and Environmental Systems. :open_access:

Parzen, Maximilian, Hazem Abdel-Khalek, Ekaterina Fedorova, Matin Mahmood, Martha Maria Frysztacki, Johannes Hampp, Lukas Franken, Leon Schumm, Fabian Neumann, Davide Poli, Aristides Kiprakis, and Davide Fioriti (13 September 2022). PyPSA-Earth. A new global open energy system optimization model demonstrated in Africa — Preprint. doi:10.48550/ARXIV.2209.04663. :open_access:

Egypt

Dallmann, Christoph, Matthew Schmidt, and Dominik Möst (1 May 2022). “Between path dependencies and renewable energy potentials: a case study of the Egyptian power system”. Energy Strategy Reviews. 41: 100848. ISSN 2211‑467X. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2022.100848. :open_access:

Rady, Yassin Yehia, Matteo V Rocco, MA Serag-Eldin, and Emanuela Colombo (15 December 2018). “Modelling for power generation sector in developing countries: case of Egypt”. Energy. 165: 198–209. ISSN 0360-5442. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.089.

Ethiopia

Boke, Megersa Tesfaye, Semu Ayalew Moges, and Zeleke Agide Dejen (14 January 2022). “Optimizing renewable-based energy supply options for power generation in Ethiopia”. PLOS ONE. 17 (1): 0262595. ISSN 1932-6203. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0262595. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Mekonnen, Tewodros Walle, Solomon Tesfamariam Teferi, Fitsum Salehu Kebede, and Gabrial Anandarajah (January 2022). “Assessment of impacts of climate change on hydropower-dominated power system — the case of Ethiopia”. Applied Sciences. 12 (4): 1954. ISSN 2076-3417. doi:10.3390/app12041954. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Yalew, Amsalu Woldie (18 February 2022). “The Ethiopian energy sector and its implications for the SDGs and modeling”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition. 2: 100018. ISSN 2667-095X. doi:10.1016/j.rset.2022.100018. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Ghana

Awopone, Albert K, Ahmed F Zobaa, and Walter Banuenumah (2017). “Assessment of optimal pathways for power generation system in Ghana”. Cogent Engineering. 4 (1): 1314065. doi:10.1080/23311916.2017.1314065. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Kenya

Golinucci, Nicolò, Nicolò Stevanato, Federica Inzoli, Mohammad Amin Tahavori, Negar Namazifard, Lamya Adil Sulliman Hussain, Benedetta Camilli, Matteo Vincenzo Rocco, and Emanuela Colombo. (11 November 2020). Comprehensive and integrated impact assessment framework for development policies evaluation: definition and application to Kenya — FEEM Report No 10‑2020. Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM). ISBN 978-889436944-1. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3733717. :open_access:

Moksnes, Nandi, Mark Howells, and William Usher (28 June 2022). “Increasing spatial and temporal resolution in energy system optimization model: the case of Kenya — Preprint”. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1734728/v2. :open_access:

Moksnes, Nandi, Alexandros Korkovelos, Dimitrios Mentis, and Mark Howells (September 2017). “Electrification pathways for Kenya — linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning”. Environmental Research Letters. 12 (9): 095008. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7e18. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. Note subsequent correction. :open_access:

Middle East

Taliotis, Constantinos, Marios Karmellos, Nestor Fylaktos, and Theodoros Zachariadis (22 September 2022). “Enhancing decarbonization of power generation through electricity trade in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region — Preprint”. doi:10.2139/ssrn.4226822. Available at SSRN. Note currently truncated citation. :open_access:

Morocco

Bahetta, Soufiyan and Rachid Hasnaoui (July 2021). “Analyses of optimum production scenarios for sustainable power production in Morocco”. Review of Economics and Finance. 19 (1): 184–195. Open access. HAL landing page. :open_access:

Bahetta, Soufiyan, Nabil Dahhou, and Rachid Hasnaoui (25 October 2021). “Comparative effectiveness of environmental regulation instruments: case of the Moroccan electricity mix”. AIMS Energy. 9 (5): 1097–1112. doi:10.3934/energy.2021050. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Nigeria

Dada, Joseph Olufemi and Albert Moser (August 2019). REPLAN: multi-region power system planning approach for Nigeria. Manhattan, New York, USA: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/PowerAfrica.2019.8928896. 2019 IEEE PES/IAS PowerAfrica conference proceedings. :closed_access:

Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent, Taha Chaiechi, and ABM Rabiul Alam Beg (15 February 2019). “Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS model”. Applied Energy. 236: 1183–1217. ISSN 0306-2619. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.045. :closed_access:

Isihak, Salisu, Uduak Akpan, and Subhes Bhattacharyya (19 February 2022). “Evolution of GIS-based rural electrification planning models and an application of OnSSET in Nigeria — Official pre‑proof”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition. 100019. ISSN 2667-095X. doi:10.1016/j.rset.2022.100019. :open_access:

Juanpera, M, P Blechinger, L Ferrer-Martí, MM Hoffmann, and R Pastor (1 November 2020). “Multicriteria-based methodology for the design of rural electrification systems: a case study in Nigeria”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 133: 110243. ISSN 1364‑0321. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2020.110243. Linked URL is a preprint.

Ogunlowo, Qazeem Opeyemi, Wook Ho Na, Anis Rabiu, Misbaudeen Aderemi Adesanya, Elizabeth Oluwakemi Augustus, and Hyun Woo Lee (27 September 2022). “Nigeria’s energy policy needs state-of-the-art modelling tools”. Nature. 609 (7929): 895–895. ISSN 0028‑0836. doi:10.1038/d41586-022-03010-1. :closed_access:

Reunion Island

Ayagapin, Leslie, Jean Philippe Praene, Doorgeshwaree Jaggeshar, and Dinesh Surroop (January 2021). “Prospective life cycle assessment: effect of electricity decarbonization in building sector”. Energies. 14 (11): 3184. ISSN 1996-1073. doi:10.3390/en14113184. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Sierra Leone

Gardumi, Francesco, Luca Petrarulo, S Sesay, D Caulker, Mark Howells, and Ioannis Pappis (1 October 2022). “Supporting a self-sustained energy planning ecosystem: lessons from Sierra Leone”. Energy for Sustainable Development. 70: 62–67. ISSN 0973-0826. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2022.07.006. :open_access:

Southern Africa

Chowdhury, AFM Kamal, Ranjit Deshmukh, Grace C Wu, Anagha Uppal, Ana Mileva, Tiana Curry, Les Armstrong, Stefano Galelli, and Kudakwashe Ndhlukula (17 August 2022). “Enabling a low-carbon electricity system for Southern Africa”. Joule. 6 (8): 1826–1844. ISSN 2542‑4785. doi:10.1016/j.joule.2022.06.030. :closed_access:

South Africa

Hörsch, Jonas and Joanne Calitz (30 October 2017). “PyPSA-ZA: Investment and operation co-optimization of integrating wind and solar in South Africa at high spatial and temporal detail — Preprint”.

Welsch, Manuel, Mark Howells, Morgan Bazilian, Joseph F DeCarolis, Sebastian Hermann, and Holger H Rogner (1 October 2012). “Modelling elements of smart grids — enhancing the OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code”. Energy. 46 (1): 337–350. ISSN 0360-5442. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.017.

Tanzania

Rocco, Matteo V, Elena Fumagalli, Chiara Vigone, Ambrogio Miserocchi, and Emanuela Colombo (1 March 2021). “Enhancing energy models with geo-spatial data for the analysis of future electrification pathways: the case of Tanzania”. Energy Strategy Reviews. 34: 100614. ISSN 2211-467X. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2020.100614. CC‑BY‑NC‑ND‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Rocco, Matteo V, Francesco Tonini, Elena M Fumagalli, and Emanuela Colombo (1 August 2020). “Electrification pathways for Tanzania: implications for the economy and the environment”. Journal of Cleaner Production. 263: 121278. ISSN 0959-6526. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121278.

Tunisia

Dhakouani, Asma, Francesco Gardumi, Essia Znouda, Chiheb Bouden, and Mark Howells (15 December 2017). “Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system”. Energy. 141: 550–562. ISSN 0360-5442. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.093. :closed_access:

Dhakouani, Asma, Essia Znouda, and Chiheb Bouden (1 October 2019). “Impacts of energy efficiency policies on the integration of renewable energy”. Energy Policy. 133: 110922. ISSN 0301-4215. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110922. :closed_access:

Dhakouani, Asma, Essia Znouda, and Chiheb Bouden (2020). Impacts of electricity subsidies policy on energy transition. In Qudrat-Ullah and Asif (editors). Dynamics of energy, environment and economy: a sustainability perspective. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing. ISBN 978-3-030-43578-3. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-43578-3_4. :closed_access:

Gardumi, Francesco, Nesrine Mhiri, Mark Howells, Franziska Bock, Thameur Necibi, and Chiheb Bouden (1 November 2021). “A scenario analysis of potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Tunisian electricity sector”. Energy Strategy Reviews. 38: 100759. ISSN 2211-467X. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2021.100759. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Howells, Mark, Thameur Necibi, John Skip Laitner, Francesco Gardumi, and Franziska Bock (6 April 2021). Integrated input-output and systems analysis modelling: the case of Tunisia — part 2: a systems model with IO multipliers — Preprint. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-337003/v2. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Zambia

Tembo, Bernard (January 2018). Strategic investment decisions in Zambia’s mining sector under a constrained energy system. PhD thesis. London, United Kingdom: University College London (UCL). :open_access:

Zimbabwe

Howells, Mark, Brent Boehlert, and Pablo César Benitez (January 2021). “Potential climate change risks to meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC goals and how to become resilient”. Energies. 14 (18): 5827. ISSN 1996-1073. doi:10.3390/en14185827. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Technology potentials and costs

Bofinger, Stefan, Britta Zimmermann, Ann-Katrin Gerlach, Tobias Bischof-Niemz, and Crescent Mushwana (3 March 2016). Wind and solar PV resource aggregation study for South Africa: public presentation of results — Revision 1 — Presentation. Pretoria, South Africa: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). :open_access:

Knorr, Kaspar, Britta Zimmermann, Stefan Bofinger, Ann-Katrin Gerlach, Tobias Bischof-Niemz, and Crescent Mushwana (1 November 2016). Wind and solar PV resource aggregation study for South Africa — Final report — RFP no 542-23-02-2015. Bremerhaven, Germany: Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems (IWES). :open_access:

Mentis, Dimitris, Shahid Hussain Siyal, Alexandros Korkovelos, and Mark Howells (1 September 2017). “Estimating the spatially explicit wind generated electricity cost in Africa: a GIS based analysis”. Energy Strategy Reviews. 17: 45–49. ISSN 2211-467X. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2017.07.002. :closed_access:

Climate impacts

Cervigni, Raffaello, Rikard Liden, James E Neumann, and Kenneth M Strzepek (editors) (1 September 2015). Enhancing the climate resilience of Africa’s infrastructure. Washington DC, USA: World Bank. ISBN 978‑1‑4648‑0466‑3.

Sridharan, Vignesh, Oliver Broad, Abhishek Shivakumar, Mark Howells, Brent Boehlert, David G Groves, H-Holger Rogner, Constantinos Taliotis, James E Neumann, Kenneth M Strzepek, Robert Lempert, Brian Joyce, Annette Huber-Lee, and Raffaello Cervigni (17 January 2019). “Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation”. Nature Communications. 10 (1): 302. ISSN 2041-1723. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08275-7. CC‑BY‑4.0 license. :open_access:

Machine-learning projections

Alova, Galina, Philipp A Trotter, and Alex Money (February 2021). “A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success”. Nature Energy. 6 (2): 158–166. ISSN 2058-7546. doi:10.1038/s41560-020-00755-9. :closed_access:

Vetter, David (11 January 2021). Africa could be locked into fossil fuel future, warns new report. Forbes. Covers Alova et al (2021) (cited above). :open_access:

Starter kits

Allington, Lucy, Carla Cannone, Ioannis Pappis, Karla Cervantes Barron, Will Usher, Steve Pye, Edward Brown, Mark Howells, Miriam Zachau Walker, Aniq Ahsan, Flora Charbonnier, Claire Halloran, Stephanie Hirmer, Jennifer Cronin, Constantinos Taliotis, Caroline Sundin, Vignesh Sridharan, Eunice Ramos, Maarten Brinkerink, Paul Deane, Andrii Gritsevskyi, Gustavo Moura, Arnaud Rouget, David Wogan, Edito Barcelona, Taco Niet, Holger Rogner, Franziska Bock, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, Jam Angulo-Paniagua, Satheesh Krishnamurthy, John Harrison, and Long Seng To (12 February 2022). Selected ‘starter kit’ energy system modelling data for selected countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America (#CCG, 2021). doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1178306/v1. :open_access:

Cannone, Carla, Lucy Allington, Nicki de Wet, Abhishek Shivakumar, Philip Goynes, Cesar Valderrama, Vedran Kapor, Jarrad Wright, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, Long Seng To, John Harrison, and Mark Howells (12 February 2022). clicSAND for OSeMOSYS: a user-friendly interface using open-source optimisation software for energy system modelling analysis. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1338761/v1. Pre‑print. :open_access:

Miscellaneous

Chigumadzi, Panashe (31 December 2021). “Can white South Africa live up to Ubuntu, the African philosophy Tutu globalised?”. The Guardian. London, United Kingdom. ISSN 0261-3077. :open_access:

ESR (February 2022). Energy systems modelling for planning in Africa and small island countries — Call for papers — Energy Strategy Reviews. Energy Strategy Reviews.

Useful links

PyPSA meets Africa

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