Calibration of Osemosys

OSeMOSYS Troubleshooting
1

Hello collegues,

I hope you are all doing well.

I would like guidance on how to implement the calibration of Osemosys. I am using the MUIO version 5.6 for the modeling. In this model, 2023 has been selected as the base year.

The challenge with calibration is arising in all the sectors considered, for example, the power sector. I have included the residual capacity, the activity lower limit, and the upper limit. For the large hydro, the power production in 2023 was 16.92 PJ, but the results are showing a production of 67.7 PJ.

I have observed the same issue with some of the models on zenodo; the production in the results is higher than what is included in the input parameter(s).

Rate-of-activty
Rate-of-activty1366×768 158 KB

upperlimit2023
upperlimit20231366×768 155 KB

2

Hi @Shem, the production should not exceed the upper activity limit, so there is something wrong there. Do you have a BACKSTOP tech in your model?

@Fernando_Plazas any thoughts?

3

Dear @Shem, I would recommend double-checking the electricity demand. If hydropower is producing more electricity, it is because the demand is higher than the lower limit.

The key verification is that the final electricity demand must be equal to electricity production minus the losses in transmission and distribution.

You can adjust the final electricity demand, the efficiency of the transmission and distribution systems, and the capacity factors of the power plants, assuming that the residual capacities are correct.

1 Like
4

Hello @KaneAlexander, I had not included a BACKSTOP tech in the model. I will consider this.

1 Like
5

Dear @Fernando_Plazas, I am going to double-check the electricity demand, efficiencies, capacity factors, and residual capacities.

I will share the model in case I am still unable to address the issue.

6

Dear @Fernando_Plazas and @KaneAlexander,

I am still having trouble calibrating the power sector in the model. I have attached the model for further support.

Kind regards,

Shem

7

Additionally, I have removed all other sectors and just left the electricity sector. However, the electricity production (rate of activity) is still beyond what has been set and the demand.

Kindly advise on this.

8

Dear @Shem, Could you please provide all the details, including the specific figures and differences between your model results and the calibration results? The model itself is not enough for me to understand what the problem is, as it is running and producing reasonably consistent results.

9

Hello @Fernando_Plazas .
I am modelling the Ugandan energy system.
I have included the total technology annual activity lower limit for the various existing power generation technologies in 2023. The majority of the power generated was from the large hydro power plants represented as PWRHYD001 in the model, which contributed 16.92 PJ as indicated in the total technology annual activity lower limit.

When the model is run, the values for rate of activity results for PWRHYD001 show 67.76 PJ was produced in 2023. The same discrepancy for the other generation technologies. This is the issue I would like guidance on.